The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party marked a significant political shift with its recent Saxony-Anhalt AfD victory, securing at least 44 percent of the vote. This overwhelming result more than doubled the party’s previous support in the state. Lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, 35, expressed jubilation, declaring, “We have made history today.”
By contrast, the centre-right CDU, led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, garnered only 18.5 percent. State premier Sven Schulze of the CDU called the outcome “a severe blow.” However, depending on the final ballot count, the CDU may still attempt to form a multi-party coalition to retain power.
A major obstacle for the CDU is the “firewall” agreement among mainstream parties. All have vowed non-cooperation with the AfD. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency even categorises the AfD’s state branch as “right-wing extremist.”
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s national co-leader, praised the “sensational” outcome. She asserted the party received “a very clear mandate to govern here,” despite the existing firewall. Voters turned out in record numbers, with at least 75 percent participation in the small state of 2.1 million people.
A potential CDU-led government would require a complex coalition. It might involve the centre-left SPD, the Greens, and possibly the far-left Die Linke, potentially with a razor-thin majority. Another wildcard is the BSW party, which is economically leftist but holds hard-right views on immigration. Its ability to cross the five-percent parliamentary threshold could influence future alliances.
This decisive Saxony-Anhalt AfD victory has sent shockwaves through the national political landscape. A first-ever AfD state government would be profoundly unsettling for many Germans. The nation has worked diligently to atone for its dark history, keeping extremist parties largely at bay.
Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews, expressed his dismay. “I am personally appalled by this election result,” he stated. Furthermore, thousands rallied in Magdeburg against the AfD on Saturday, displaying banners like “life is better without Nazis.” Demonstrator Laura Saalfeld voiced concerns that far-right sympathisers would now “show themselves more openly on the streets.”
Ulrich Siegmund has openly articulated ambitions to become state premier. He envisions leading a political revolution from Saxony-Anhalt, aiming to propel the AfD to national victory by 2029. Siegmund, a former entrepreneur, gained a huge social media following during his campaign. He tapped into nostalgia for communist East Germany and persistent resentment over the wealth gap with the west.
Siegmund’s campaign promises are radical, despite his ‘friendly face’ persona. He proposes a “remigration and deportation offensive” targeting irregular migrants from day one. Additionally, his party’s anti-“woke” agenda includes replacing LGBTQ pride flags with German flags in public schools. It also seeks to lessen the emphasis on the Third Reich in history education.
The German Economic Institute has warned that the AfD’s immigration policy could be “ruinous” for Saxony-Anhalt. The state relies heavily on foreign-born workers, especially within its health sector. This strong AfD performance intensifies pressure on Chancellor Merz. His CDU party has also been outpolled by the AfD in national surveys, despite his promises to revitalise the economy and restrict irregular immigration.
Holger Schmieding of Berenberg bank noted the result was “even worse than what opinion polls had suggested beforehand.” He predicted a period of “serious and potentially noisy soul-searching within the CDU.” Schmieding concluded that a significant factor in the AfD’s success appears to be the federal government’s growing unpopularity under Merz’s leadership.
